Table 1.

Transition probabilities used in the model. NMFI – Non malarial febrile illness. CFR – Case fatality rate.

Probability untreated malaria becomes severe	Age group			Source
Transmission intensity	Under 5	5 to 10	10+
Low	0.075	0.05	0.01	[25, 32, 41]; supplemented by expert opinion (Chris Whitty, Hugh Reyburn)
Medium	0.075	0.01	0.004
High	0.075	0.01	0.0015
CFR severe malaria	0.2	0.2	0.2
Probability untreated NMFI becomes severe	0.01	0.005	0.010
CFR NMFI	0.1	0.20	0.30