Table 2.
Ten-year probability of fracture (%) at the sites shown for men and women with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 according to age and the presence or absence of a single risk factor in the absence of BMD
| Osteoporotic fracturea | Hip fracture | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | |
| (a) Men | ||||||||
| No clinical risk factors | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Parental history of hip fracture | 5.5 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 15 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 11 |
| Current cigarette smoking | 2.8 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| Alcohol intake >2 units daily | 3.3 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 5.1 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 3.7 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Oral glucocorticoids | 4.4 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 5.5 |
| Previous fragility fracture | 5.8 | 7.9 | 11 | 12 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 5.2 |
| (b) Women | ||||||||
| No clinical risk factors | 3.5 | 6.0 | 11 | 17 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 7.0 |
| Parental history of hip fracture | 6.9 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 22 |
| Current cigarette smoking | 3.6 | 6.5 | 12 | 19 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 9.5 |
| Alcohol intake >2 units daily | 4.1 | 7.3 | 14 | 22 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 10 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 4.7 | 8.2 | 15 | 25 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 12 |
| Oral glucocorticoids | 5.6 | 9.8 | 18 | 26 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 13 |
| Previous fragility fracture | 7.4 | 12 | 20 | 28 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 11 |
aClinical spine, hip, humeral or forearm fracture