Figure 3.

Real parameter estimates of breeder to non-breeder transition probabilities of males and females modelled over a 13-year period. Males had significantly higher transition probabilities in most years. Probabilities increased dramatically for both sexes after the breeding failures during the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation event of 1997–1998. Most birds did not breed during 1999–2000, but females that did breed in that season were more likely than males were to become non-breeders in the following year. Error bars denote 95% CI.