TABLE 2.

Posterior estimates for various levels of genetic differentiation and low gene flow

		FST
Factors included		0.01	0.05	0.10	0.25
None		0.444	0.106	0.056	0.028
G1		0.122	0.072	0.055	0.030
G2		0.291	0.301	0.122	0.073
and		0.075	0.323	0.521	0.638
With interaction		0.068	0.197	0.246	0.231
		Estimate/RMSE/95% HPDI
Parameter	True value	0.01	0.05	0.10	0.25
α1	−0.900	a	−0.858	−1.122	−1.010
			0.123	0.101	0.015
			(−1.984; 0.263)	(−2.091; −0.191)	(−1.723; −0.321)
α2	1.100	a	1.403	1.314	1.173
			0.127	0.071	0.008
			(0.197; 2.687)	(0.387; 2.279)	(0.473; 1.886)
σ2	–	0.486	0.513	0.452	0.352
		—	—	—	—
		(0.131; 3.067)	(0.125; 4.117)	(0.120; 3.090)	(0.110; 1.956)
Assignments		0.01	0.05	0.10	0.25
Misassignments		0.808	0.134	0.046	0.002
Probabilitiesb		0.288	0.847	0.946	0.997

Posterior model probabilities, regression parameter mean estimates, and assignment accuracy for synthetic data generated with proportions of nonmigrant alleles set to m_ii = 0.90 are shown.

^aThe corresponding regression parameter is not included in the model with the highest posterior model probability.

^bMaximum posterior assignment probabilities averaged across all individuals.