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. 2008 Apr 8;5(4):e80. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050080

Figure 4. Comparison of Method Estimates With Simulated Data Under Range of Conditions Violating Underlying Method Assumptions.

Figure 4

(A) The age-specific mortality rates for HIV-infected individuals when incidence is highest at young ages (dark line with crosses) or middle ages (grey line with triangles).

(B) Estimates of incidence using method 1 when the “wrong” pattern age-specific mortality rates are used (i.e., from the alternative scenario in [A]: dashed lines) and when the correct rates or method 2 is used (solid lines). Bars show simulated incidence rates.

(C) Estimates of incidence using method 2 when the age pattern of incidence changes (instantaneously between the two scenarios shown in [B]), 5 y (thick line), 10 y (dash-dot line), or 15 y (thin line) before the first survey. The dotted lines show the estimate if the age pattern of incidence does not change; the line with circles shows the estimates if the age pattern changes in the interval between the two surveys. The bars show the average incidence rate in the intersurvey period.