Table 1.
Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model
| Parameters | Age | Transition probability | Time period | References |
| Normal | ||||
| Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence) | 10–12 | 0.0000 | 12 months | Calibrated from Canfell et al17 |
| 13 | 0.0100 | 12 months | ||
| 14 | 0.0300 | 12 months | ||
| 15 | 0.0400 | 12 months | ||
| 16 | 0.0460 | 12 months | ||
| 17 | 0.0700 | 12 months | ||
| 18 | 0.0700 | 12 months | ||
| 19 | 0.1700 | 12 months | ||
| 20–21 | 0.2000 | 12 months | ||
| 22 | 0.1200 | 12 months | ||
| 23 | 0.1100 | 12 months | ||
| 24–29 | 0.0850 | 12 months | ||
| 30–33 | 0.0320 | 12 months | ||
| 34–49 | 0.0170 | 12 months | ||
| 50+ | 0.0095 | 12 months | ||
| HPV infected state | ||||
| Progression from HPV infection to SIL – all risk HPV | 0.0959 | 12 months | Canfell et al17 | |
| Percentage CIN 2 among SIL | 0.1350 | 12 months | Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17 | |
| Regression of CIN 1 to normal from HPV infection | 12–24 | 0.7000 | 18 months | Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17 |
| 25–29 | 0.5000 | 18 months | ||
| 30–39 | 0.4000 | 18 months | ||
| 40–49 | 0.2700 | 18 months | ||
| 50+ | 0.1000 | 18 months | ||
| CIN 1 | Canfell et al17 | |||
| Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV | 16–34 | 0.0297 | 12 months | |
| 35+ | 0.1485 | 12 months | ||
| Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 3 – all risk HPV | 0.0301 | 12 months | ||
| Regression to HPV infected state – all risk HPV | 16–34 | 0.2248 | 12 months | |
| 35+ | 0.1124 | 12 months | ||
| Proportion regressing to normal | 0.9000 | 12 months | ||
| CIN 2 | Canfell et al17 | |||
| Progression from CIN 2 to CIN 3 | 16–34 | 0.0389 | 12 months | |
| 35–44 | 0.0797 | 12 months | ||
| 45+ | 0.1062 | 12 months | ||
| Regression from CIN 2 to CIN 1 | 0.2430 | 12 months | ||
| Regression from CIN 2 to uninfected or HPV infections | 0.1901 | 12 months | ||
| Proportion regressing directly to normal | 0.9000 | 12 months | ||
| CIN 3 | Canfell et al17 | |||
| Regression CIN 3 to CIN 1 – all risk HPV | 0.0000 | 12 months | ||
| Regression from CIN 3 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV | 0.0135 | 12 months | ||
| CIN 3 to uninfected or HPV infection | 16–44 | 0.0135 | 12 months | |
| 45+ | 0.0100 | 12 months | ||
| Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to uninfected | 0.5000 | 12 months | ||
| Proportion CIN 3 progressing to FIGO I cancer | 0.0127 | 12 months | ||
| Cervical cancer | Myers et al12 | |||
| FIGO 1 | ||||
| Progression rates | 0.9000 | 48 months | ||
| Probability of symptoms | 0.1850 | 12 months | ||
| FIGO 2 | ||||
| Progression rates | 0.9000 | 36 months | ||
| Probability of symptoms | 0.3000 | 12 months | ||
| FIGO 3 | ||||
| Progression rates | 0.9000 | 15 months | ||
| Probability of symptoms | 0.7500 | 12 months | ||
| FIGO 4 | ||||
| Probability of symptoms | 0.8000 | 12 months | ||
| Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 1 | Cancer Research UK 21 | |||
| 1 Year survival | 0.977 | 12 months | ||
| 2 Year survival | 0.978 | 12 months | ||
| 3 Year survival | 0.963 | 12 months | ||
| 4 Year survival | 0.988 | 12 months | ||
| 5 Year survival | 0.988 | 12 months | ||
| Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 2 | ||||
| 1 Year survival | 0.830 | 12 months | ||
| 2 Year survival | 0.835 | 12 months | ||
| 3 Year survival | 0.755 | 12 months | ||
| 4 Year survival | 0.870 | 12 months | ||
| 5 Year survival | 0.899 | 12 months | ||
| Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 3 | ||||
| 1 Year survival | 0.590 | 12 months | ||
| 2 Year survival | 0.693 | 12 months | ||
| 3 Year survival | 0.778 | 12 months | ||
| 4 Year survival | 0.928 | 12 months | ||
| 5 Year survival | 0.963 | 12 months | ||
| Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 4 | ||||
| 1 Year survival | 0.523 | 12 months | ||
| 2 Year survival | 0.782 | 12 months | ||
| 3 Year survival | 0.721 | 12 months | ||
| 4 Year survival | 0.925 | 12 months | ||
| 5 Year survival | 0.956 | 12 months |