Table 1.

Summary results of the autologistic regression models for the three main HPAI H5N1 virus epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam between 2004 and 2005

Wave	Cst	Alt	Hpop	Ch	Du	CropMean	ArT	AUC, ± SD	kappa, ± SD	Pseudo-R2, ± SD
Thailand I	−1.05	0.00103*	2.25 10−5	3.39 10−6	2.03 10−5	0.556	247	0.66 ± 0.023	0.26 ± 0.043	0.062 ± 0.019
		2.31†	5.46	2.98	7.14	4.13	22.4
		P = 0.129‡	P = 0.0194	P = 0.08411	P = 0.00753	P = 0.0422	P < 0.001
Thailand II	−1.143	−0.00219	1.06 10−5	1.88 10−7	3.04 10−5	0.964	88.6	0.79 ± 0.0073	0.49 ± 0.018	0.19 ± 0.012
		25.7	5.92	1.07	44.7	46.8	65.8
		P < 0.001	P = 0.0150	P = 0.301	P < 0.001	P < 0.001	P < 0.001
Thailand III	0.0634	−0.0128	5.99 10−5	1.69 10−6	5.51 10−5	0.777	1486	0.88 ± 0.034	0.67 ± 0.073	0.40 ± 0.079
		19.3	2.99	1.49	5.04	2.03	5.58
		P < 0.001	P = 0.084	P = 0.222	P = 0.024	P = 0.154	P = 0.0181
Vietnam I	−1.74	−0.00021	9.19 10−5	4.71 10−6	6.09 10−6	0.188	63.1	0.69 ± 0.0049	0.27 ± 0.009	0.078 ± 0.0042
		3.83	90.0	3.56	2.49	5.73	808
		P = 0.0503	P < 0.001	P = 0.0591	P = 0.115	P = 0.0167	P < 0.001
Vietnam II	−2.67	0.000328	9.22 10−5	−2.11 10−6	2.85 10−5	0.730	160	0.77 ± 0.0085	0.41 ± 0.018	0.17 ± 0.013
		1.39	19.8	1.45	12.1	19.3	312
		P = 0.238	P < 0.001	P = 0.229	P < 0.001	P < 0.001	P < 0.001
Vietnam III	−1.58	0.000408	−3.90 10−5	3.43 10−5	6.4 10−6	0.497	245	0.66 ± 0.018	0.25 ± 0.031	0.055 ± 0.014
		1.31	3.55	14.1	1.20	4.36	198
		P = 0.253	P = 0.0595	P < 0.001	P = 0.274	P = 0.0367	P < 0.001

All values result from 500 models including all positive and an equivalent number of bootstrap-selected negatives. Alt, Hpop, Ch, Du and CropMean are the average altitude, human population, chicken number, duck number, and mean number of rice crop harvested 500-m pixels, respectively, in each subdistrict (Thailand) or commune (Vietnam). ArT is the autoregressive term.

*Average coefficient.

^†Average change in −2LL upon variable removal.

^‡Significance of the change.