Table 2.
Illness attack rates (%) and (antiviral courses per 1,000) using scenarios described in Table 1 in the Chicago population
| Scenario% compliance/ascertainment | Intervention threshold, % |
R0 = 1.9 (2.1) |
R0 = 2.4 |
R0 = 3.0 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial | UW | VBI | Imperial | UW | VBI | Imperial | UW | VBI | ||
| 1 | NA | 42.4(0) | 46.8(0) | 44.7(0) | 52.4(0) | 52.4(0) | 51.1(0) | 58.8(0) | 58.8(0) | 56.5(0) |
| 2 30/60 | 1 | 7.3(104) | 2.8(38) | 3.9(59.1) | 15.5(239) | 4.1(61.2) | 9.7(140.4) | 27.4(421) | 8.5(138.4) | 20.1(275.1) |
| 3 60/60 | 0.1 | 1.1(17.9) | 0.31(4.3) | 1.3(29.7) | 4.1(69.8) | 0.41(6.2) | 3.2(70.6) | 18.1(300) | 1.03(17.1) | 9.4(189) |
| 4 60/80 | 0.01 | 0.22(4.6) | 0.040.76) | 0.10(3.2) | 0.66(14.2) | 0.05(1.1) | 1.4(41.7) | 10.1(210) | 0.12(2.5) | 3.8(105.9) |
| 5 90/60 | 0.1 | 0.17(3.2) | 0.30(4.1) | 1.2(28.8) | 0.66(14.2) | 0.30(5.8) | 2.7(59.4) | 11.5(192) | 0.86(14.2) | 6.4(132.2) |
| 6 90/80 | 0.01 | 0.20(4.2) | 0.04(0.76) | 0.07(2.3) | 0.54(9.4) | 0.05(1.0) | 1.2(35.5) | 5.4(112) | 0.11(2.1) | 2.8(80.2) |
The Imperial/Pitt model results are based on an average of 10 realizations, the UW/LANL results on an average of 5 realizations, and the VBI results mostly on one realization.