Table 4.

U.S. national illness (infection) attack rates using three national intervention strategies in the U.S. population models

	Illness (infection)	Attack rate, %
Scenario	UW/LANL	Imperial/Pitt
No intervention	47 (70)	42 (63)
Social distancing*	39 (58)	–
Partial scenario 2†	23 (35)	–
Full TLC (scenario 2)‡	0.13 (0.20)	0.30 (0.45)

Threshold is an illness attack rate of 1/1,000 nationally for all interventions except school closure. School closure is implemented locally at the local threshold of 1/1,000 illness attack rate. Otherwise similar to scenario 2 (30/60) when applicable. UW/LANL model R₀ = 2.1; Imperial/Pitt model R₀ = 1.9.

*Only 50% community social distancing and 50% reduction in long distance travel, nothing else.

^†Scenario 2, 50% reduction in long distance travel; but no TAP, treatment only, no school closure, no liberal leave.

^‡Scenario 2, school closure at local threshold; 50% reduction in long-distance travel.