Figure 4. Time to emergence of ketolide-resistant S. pneumoniae.

Times to reach 1% or 10% resistant strains among colonized individuals as a function of the rate of ketolide prescriptions replacing penicillin and macrolides in adults (A) or the entire population (B) are shown. Three ketolide-prescription levels are depicted: low, medium and high replacement rates of total antibiotic consumption. For these simulations, times were computed using p ₄ = 0.01 as the probability of ketolide-resistance emergence in strains. The T-bars represent the lower and upper prediction intervals, corresponding to p ₄ = 0.1 and 0.001, respectively.