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. 2006 Sep 5;4(12):91–98. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0154

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Model realizations of CF incidence over time for candidate diseases, given 100% resistance (ρ=1) to the specified disease. Tuberculosis has been assigned responsibility for a fraction, τ=1.6%, of mortality prior to 1600. All the populations are initiated with 1 in 20 000 CF allele frequencies. Typhoid fever and SDC were initiated 50 000 yrBP. Tuberculosis was given the more restrictive start time of 18 000 yrBP. Under these conditions, tuberculosis resistance produces an observed modern European CF incidence of 1 in 3000 (arrow). The inflection point in the tuberculosis curve is due to the conservative assumption that tuberculosis rates jumped to their historically documented levels in 1600, rather than increasing gradually prior to 1600.