Figure 6.

Sequential Bayesian estimation of the full distribution of ${\mathcal{R}}_t$ leads to the estimation of its maximum-likelihood value (grey dots) and 95% CIs (solid black lines). Uncertainty, measured by the width of the CI, decreases with more case observations. The estimates eventually lead to smaller ${\mathcal{R}}_t$ owing to depletion of susceptibles. At late times, ${\mathcal{R}}_t\to 1$ as a result of averaging periods in which the epidemic grows and declines.