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. 2005 Nov 8;93(11):1244–1249. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602848

Table 1. Data and calculations of the probability of the spread of cancer cells.

Cancer Population Size range Nominal tumour size (mm) Cell number (N) Manifestation of metasatasis Fraction of patients with a manifestation of metastasis (L) (%) Probability of spread (p=−ln(1−L)/N)
Breast cancer Tabar et al 10–14 12 9.05E+07 Cancer death 13 1/6.5 × 108
Breast cancer Tabar et al 15–19 17 2.57E+08 Cancer death 20 1/1.2 × 109
Breast cancer Tabar et al 20–29 25 8.18E+08 Cancer death 45 1/1.4 × 109
Breast cancer Tabar et al 30–49 39 3.11E+09 Cancer death 56 1/3.9 × 109
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 10–25 17 2.57E+08 Cancer death 27 1/8.2 × 108
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 26–35 30 1.41E+09 Cancer death 42 1/2.6 × 109
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 36–45 40 3.35E+09 Cancer death 55 1/4.1 × 109
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 46–55 50 6.54E+09 Cancer death 66 1/6.1 × 109
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 56–65 60 1.13E+10 Cancer death 78 1/7.4 × 109
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 66–75 70 1.80E+10 Cancer death 83 1/1.0 × 1010
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 76–85 80 2.68E+10 Cancer death 81 1/1.6 × 1010
Breast cancer Tubiana et al 86–95 90 3.82E+10 Cancer death 92 1/1.5 × 1010
Breast cancer Van nuys 10–14 12 9.05E+07 Cancer death 14 1/6.0 × 108
Breast cancer Van nuys 15–19 17 2.57E+08 Cancer death 28 1/7.8 × 108
Breast cancer Van nuys 20–29 25 8.18E+08 Cancer death 33 1/2.0 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 30–49 39 3.11E+09 Cancer death 46 1/4.0 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 15–19 17 2.57E+08 Cancer in nodes 32 1/6.7 × 108
Breast cancer Van nuys 20–24 22 5.58E+08 Cancer in nodes 39 1/1.1 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 25–29 27 1.03E+09 Cancer in nodes 39 1/2.1 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 30–34 32 1.72E+09 Cancer in nodes 50 1/2.5 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 35–39 37 2.65E+09 Cancer in nodes 54 1/3.4 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 40–44 42 3.88E+09 Cancer in nodes 63 1/3.9 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 45–50 47 5.44E+09 Cancer in nodes 54 1/7.1 × 109
Breast cancer Van nuys 50–54 52 7.36E+09 Cancer in nodes 59 1/8.3 × 109
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.10 5.3E+01 Cancer death 11 1/480
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.23 6.8E+02 Cancer death 9 1/7100
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.37 2.6E+03 Cancer death 10 1/2.4 × 104
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.44 4.3E+03 Cancer death 14 1/2.9 × 104
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.50 6.7E+03 Cancer death 18 1/3.4 × 104
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.60 1.2E+04 Cancer death 22 1/4.5 × 104
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.70 1.8E+04 Cancer death 18 1/9.1 × 104
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.84 3.1E+04 Cancer death 20 1/1.4 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.91 3.9E+04 Cancer death 23 1/1.5 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 0.97 4.8E+04 Cancer death 21 1/2.0 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.11 7.1E+04 Cancer death 20 1/3.1 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.17 8.5E+04 Cancer death 27 1/2.7 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.31 1.2E+05 Cancer death 30 1/3.3 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.38 1.4E+05 Cancer death 25 1/4.8 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.51 1.8E+05 Cancer death 30 1/5.0 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.58 2.1E+05 Cancer death 25 1/7.1 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.71 2.6E+05 Cancer death 30 1/7.1 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.85 3.3E+05 Cancer death 32 1/8.3 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.88 3.5E+05 Cancer death 38 1/7.1 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 1.98 4.1E+05 Cancer death 44 1/7.1 × 105
Melanoma Balch et al — 2.11 4.9E+05 Cancer death 40 1/1.0 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 2.25 6.0E+05 Cancer death 45 1/1.0 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 2.52 8.3E+05 Cancer death 36 1/1.9 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 2.72 1.1E+06 Cancer death 45 1/1.8 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 3.02 1.4E+06 Cancer death 47 1/2.3 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 3.39 2.0E+06 Cancer death 50 1/2.9 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 3.72 2.7E+06 Cancer death 54 1/3.4 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 4.26 4.1E+06 Cancer death 54 1/5.3 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 4.73 5.5E+06 Cancer death 55 1/7.1 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 5.27 7.7E+06 Cancer death 59 1/8.3 × 106
Melanoma Balch et al — 5.77 1.0E+07 Cancer death 57 1/1.2 × 107
Melanoma Balch et al — 6.74 1.6E+07 Cancer death 63 1/1.6 × 107
Melanoma Balch et al — 7.75 2.4E+07 Cancer death 65 1/2.3 × 107
Melanoma Balch et al — 12.32 9.8E+07 Cancer death 76 1/6.7 × 107