Table 5.

Ten-year and lifetime projected outcomes for untreated and treated cohorts per 1 million population.

Variable	Untreated cohort	Treated cohort
Survival
Mean months	145.4	366.7
Median months (range)	139.5 (1–544.5)	381.5 (1–969.5)
10 Years after infection
No. (%) of secondary cases, by HIV RNA level
0–500 copies/mL	8566 (0.5)	45,241 (3.2)
501–3000 copies/mL	198,007 (10.3)	153,472 (11.0)
3001–10,000 copies/mL	323,905 (16.9)	231,665 (16.5)
10,001–30,000 copies/mL	359,459 (18.8)	243,213 (17.4)
>30,000 copies/mL	570,457 (29.8)	365,328 (25.8)
Primary infection	361,432 (18.9)	361,432 (25.8)
Late-stage infectiona	91,939 (4.8)	90 (0)
$R_0^{10}$	1.9	1.4
Lifetime of infection
No. (%) of secondary cases, by HIV RNA level
0–500 copies/mL	15,939 (0.6)	196,152 (6.4)
501–3000 copies/mL	315,702 (12.6)	407,083 (13.2)
3001–10,000 copies/mL	443,663 (17.7)	574,445 (18.7)
10,001–30,000 copies/mL	444,081 (17.7)	577,609 (18.8)
>30,000 copies/mL	643,729 (25.7)	843,084 (27.4)
Primary infection	361,432 (14.4)	361,432 (11.8)
Late-stage infectiona	278,107 (11.1)	114,846 (3.7)
$R_0^{\infty }$	2.5	3.1

^aOnce an individual is defined as having late-stage infection, they are no longer counted in any of the CD4⁺ cell count strata.