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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2008 May 2.
Published in final edited form as: Arch Dermatol. 2007 Jan;143(1):21–28. doi: 10.1001/archderm.143.1.21

Table 1.

Base Case Parameter Estimates for Melanoma Screening*

Parameter Base Case Source
5-y Survival
 Stage 1 0.92 (0.81–0.99) 10, 11
 Stage 2 0.72 (0.65–0.79) 11
 Stage 3 0.50 (0.45–0.55) 11
 Stage 4 0.13 (0.11–0.15) 11
Increased risk
 General population 1.00
 Siblings 2.24 (1.00–10.00) 5
 Siblings at high risk§ 5.56 (1.00–10.00) 5
 Screening
 Sensitivity, % 85 (70–100); beta (19, 3) 12
 Specificity, % 99 (70–100); beta (30, 1) 12
 Cost, $ 41 (21–123); normal (40, 15) 13, 14
Progression rate, % 10 (0–50); beta (0.3, 2.7) ||
Treatment costs, $
 Stage 1 1732 (1299–2165) 3
 Stage 2 4361 (3271–5451) 3
 Stage 3 55 080 (41 310–68 850) 3
 Stage 4 56 059 (42 044–70 074) 3
Health state utilities
 Stages 1 and 2 0.937 15
 Stages 3 and 4 0.52 15
*

Values in parentheses are given as range used in sensitivity analysis; distribution used for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. All costs are reported in 2004 US dollars.

Based on the 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.17

Those with 1 first-degree relative having been diagnosed with melanoma.

§

Those with 2 or more first-degree relatives having been diagnosed with melanoma.

||

Assumption based on expert opinion, varied in sensitivity analysis.