Table 1.
Parameter | Base Case | Source |
---|---|---|
5-y Survival† | ||
Stage 1 | 0.92 (0.81–0.99) | 10, 11 |
Stage 2 | 0.72 (0.65–0.79) | 11 |
Stage 3 | 0.50 (0.45–0.55) | 11 |
Stage 4 | 0.13 (0.11–0.15) | 11 |
Increased risk | ||
General population | 1.00 | |
Siblings‡ | 2.24 (1.00–10.00) | 5 |
Siblings at high risk§ | 5.56 (1.00–10.00) | 5 |
Screening | ||
Sensitivity, % | 85 (70–100); beta (19, 3) | 12 |
Specificity, % | 99 (70–100); beta (30, 1) | 12 |
Cost, $ | 41 (21–123); normal (40, 15) | 13, 14 |
Progression rate, % | 10 (0–50); beta (0.3, 2.7) | || |
Treatment costs, $ | ||
Stage 1 | 1732 (1299–2165) | 3 |
Stage 2 | 4361 (3271–5451) | 3 |
Stage 3 | 55 080 (41 310–68 850) | 3 |
Stage 4 | 56 059 (42 044–70 074) | 3 |
Health state utilities | ||
Stages 1 and 2 | 0.937 | 15 |
Stages 3 and 4 | 0.52 | 15 |
Values in parentheses are given as range used in sensitivity analysis; distribution used for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. All costs are reported in 2004 US dollars.
Based on the 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.17
Those with 1 first-degree relative having been diagnosed with melanoma.
Those with 2 or more first-degree relatives having been diagnosed with melanoma.
Assumption based on expert opinion, varied in sensitivity analysis.