Table 1.
Best-fit models. (All model runs were for w=365 days and a model start point of January 2002. Akaike information criterion (AIC) values presented are the mean AIC statistics for each day of 2004. B, Background rate spread fitted; P, parish-based high-risk areas fitted; R, radius-based high-risk areas fitted; M, movement transmission fitted. a, High-risk areas based on the ‘true’ index cases; b, average of fits for five different sets of randomized index cases; c, High-risk areas based on the set of randomized index cases used for each simulation.)
| parameters | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| model | moves μ | background β | high-risk γ | radius r (m) | AIC | |
| high within-herd | B | — | 15.1×10−6 | — | — | 18 878 |
| BM | 2.54×10−3 | 11.7×10−6 | — | — | 18 330 | |
| PM | 4.61×10−3 | — | 2.08 | — | 16 252 | |
| PBM | 3.38×10−3 | 1.86×10−6 | 2.01 | — | 15 642 | |
| RM | 2.42×10−3 | — | 1.70 | 10 300 | 15 887 | |
| RBM | 2.12×10−3 | 1.37×10−6 | 1.60 | 5987 | 15 508 | |
| low within-herd | RBM | 2.49×10−3 | 1.41×10−6 | 1.59 | 6000 | 15 489 |
| randomized index | RaBMb | 2.62×10−3 | 1.26×10−6 | 1.77 | 6000 | 16 121 |
| cases | RcBMb | 2.70×10−3 | 1.31×10−6 | 1.74 | 5715 | 16 162 |