. 2006 Dec 13;4(14):505–521. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0186

Table 5.

Mean results of 100 simulations generated by uniformly sampling the antiviral and vaccine efficacies from appropriate ranges as assumed in each scenario. Baseline scenario assumes $R$ ₀=1.9. The mean number of deceased (D_mean), hospitalized (H_mean), infections (I_mean), antiviral treatment (T_mean), antiviral prophylaxis (P_mean) and vaccinated (C_mean) individuals. The antiviral-only scenario considers lower- and upper-bound parameters for treatment and prophylaxis, treatment only and prophylaxis antivirals only, respectively. M, million; na, not applicable; ub and lb, upper- and lower-bound parameters presented in table 2.

single interventions	D_mean	H_mean	I_mean	T_mean	P_mean	C_mean
control measures only^a
π_i=1, ζ_i∈(0.1, 0.5)	2.8 M	33 M	67 M	na	na	na
ζ_i=1, π_i∈(0.1, 0.5)	296 210	3.8 M	7.7 M	na	na	na
ζ_i=0.8, π_i∈(0.1, 0.5)	624	8121	16 691	na	na	na
π_i=0.8, ζ_i∈(0.1, 0.5)	470 775	6 M	12 M	na	na	na
antiviral only^b
lb: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	15	194	426	141	124×10⁸	na
lb: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	13	168	368	127	133×10⁸	na
lb: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, ρ_i=σ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	3.7 M	47M	105 M	35 M	na	na
lb: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, ρ_i=σ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	3.7 M	47 M	105 M	36 M	na	na
lb: ρ_i, σ_i, q_i=a_i=θ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ =0.5, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	51	668	1332	na	124×10⁸	na
lb: ρ_i, σ_i, q_i=a_i=θ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ =0.3, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	38	481	958	na	133×10⁸	na
ub: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	3	38	127	109	145×10⁸	na
ub: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	3	41	135	112	137×10⁸	na
ub: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, ρ_i=σ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	483	6138	21 537	17 505	na	na
ub: $ϵ_{A_{i}}$ , q_i, a_i, ρ_i=σ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	35 836	500 799	1.7 M	1.2 M	na	na
ub: ρ_i, σ_i, q_i=a_i=θ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ =0.7, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	19	236	468	na	145×10⁸	na
ub: ρ_i, σ_I, q_i=a_i=θ_i=0, $ϵ_{A_{h}}$ =0.5, $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7)	24	305	606	na	137×10⁸	na
vaccine only^c
lb: ν_I, $ϵ_{V_{h}}$ =0.3, $ϵ_{V_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.7, 0.9)	9	91	177	na	na	300 M
lb: ν_I, $ϵ_{V_{ℓ}}$ =0.7, $ϵ_{V_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	10	106	208	na	na	300 M
ub: ν_i, $ϵ_{V_{h}}$ =0.3, $ϵ_{V_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.7, 0.9)	8	86	175	na	na	300 M
ub: ν_I, $ϵ_{V_{ℓ}}$ =0.7, $ϵ_{V_{h}}$ ∈(0.3, 0.5)	7	76	148	na	na	300 M

Mean of 100 simulations sampled from (ζ_i, π_i)∈(0.1, 0.5).

Mean of 100 simulations sampled from ϵ_{A_h}∈(0.3, 0.5) and $ϵ_{A_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.5, 0.7).

Mean of 100 simulations sampled from ϵ_{V_h}∈(0.3, 0.5) and $ϵ_{V_{ℓ}}$ ∈(0.7, 0.9).