Table 7.
Mean results of 100 simulations generated by uniformly sampling the antiviral and vaccine efficacies from appropriate ranges as assumed in each scenario. Baseline scenario assumes 0=1.9. The mean number of deceased (Dmean), hospitalized (Hmean), infections (Imean), antiviral treatment (Tmean), antiviral prophylaxis (Pmean) and vaccinated (Cmean) individuals. M, million; na, not applicable; ub and lb, upper- and lower-bound parameters presented in table 1.
| combined interventions | Dmean | Hmean | Imean | Tmean | Pmean | Cmean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| antiviral–vaccinea | ||||||
| lb: , =0.3, ∈(0.7, 0.9) | 6 | 60 | 131 | 46 | 69 M | 300 M |
| lb: , =0.7, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 6 | 67 | 147 | 50 | 69 M | 300 M |
| ub: , =0.3, ∈(0.7, 0.9) | 5 | 50 | 117 | 58 | 94 M | 300 M |
| ub: , =0.7, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 5 | 56 | 129 | 62 | 94 M | 300 M |
| control measures and antiviralsb | ||||||
| lb: qi, ai, , ζi=πi=0.8, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 8 | 94 | 207 | 72 | 124×108 | na |
| ub: qi, ai, , ζi=πi=0.8, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 3 | 31 | 102 | 88 | 145×108 | na |
| control measures, antivirals and vaccinec | ||||||
| lb: qi, ai, νi, , , ζi=πi=0.8, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 5 | 53 | 116 | 40 | 69 M | 300 M |
| ub: qi, ai, νi, , , ζi=πi=0.8, ∈(0.3, 0.5) | 3 | 26 | 74 | 51 | 41 M | 300 M |
Mean of 100 simulations sampled from ∈(0.7, 0.9) and ϵVh∈(0.3, 0.5).
Mean of 100 simulations sampled from ϵAh∈(0.3, 0.5).
Mean of 100 simulations sampled from ϵVh∈(0.3, 0.5).