TABLE 1.

Factual and Counterfactual Models of the US HIV Epidemic, 2001 to 2005

	Factual Model*			Counterfactual Model†
Year	Total PLWH‡	Incident Infections	AIDS Deaths	Total PLWH	Incident Infections	AIDS Deaths	Excess Infections§
2001	950,000	40,000	16,980	950,000	40,000	16,980	0
2002	973,020	40,000	16,641	973,020	40,969	16,641	969
2003	996,379	40,000	17,404	997,348	41,994	17,404	1994
2004	1,018,975	40,000	17,453	1,021,938	43,029	17,453	3029
2005	1,041,522			1,047,514

^*Factual model assumes 40,000 incident infections per year.

^†Counterfactual model assumes that the proportion of PLWH who were aware of their HIV status did not change between 2001 and 2004; incidence was calculated as described in text.

^‡PLWH at start of year.

^§Difference in number of incident infections predicted by factual and counterfactual models.