Table A1. Important model parameters on natural history and screening in the MISCAN breast cancer model.
| Mean duration (years) of screen-detectable preclinical stage by age | |||||
| Stage | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | |
| Preclinical DCIS | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| Preclinical T1a | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Preclinical T1b | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | |
| Preclinical T1c | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |
| Preclinical T2+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | |
| Long-term survival by clinical stage and age | |||||
| Age | DCIS | T1a | T1b | T1c | T2+ |
| 40 | 1.000 | 0.857 | 0.787 | 0.628 | 0.417 |
| 50 | 1.000 | 0.855 | 0.785 | 0.626 | 0.412 |
| 60 | 1.000 | 0.831 | 0.748 | 0.562 | 0.312 |
| 70 | 1.000 | 0.851 | 0.777 | 0.612 | 0.391 |
| Probability of surviving by time since diagnosis and stage | |||||
| Time since diagnosis | T1a | T1b | T1c | T2+ | |
| 1 year | 0.935 | 0.951 | 0.953 | 0.907 | |
| 3 years | 0.745 | 0.854 | 0.838 | 0.698 | |
| 5 years | 0.601 | 0.627 | 0.614 | 0.521 | |
| 7 years | 0.497 | 0.481 | 0.437 | 0.399 | |
| 10 years | 0.386 | 0.295 | 0.205 | 0.304 | |
| 20 years | 0.201 | 0.182 | 0.145 | 0.132 | |
| 30 years | 0.124 | 0.108 | 0.081 | 0.072 | |
| 50 years | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| Sensitivity of mammography by stage and age | |||||
| Stage | Age 40–44 years | Age 45–49 years | Age ⩾50 years | ||
| Preclinical DCIS | 24% | 32% | 40% | ||
| Preclinical T1a | 39% | 52% | 65% | ||
| Preclinical T1b | 48% | 64% | 80% | ||
| Preclinical T1c | 54% | 72% | 90% | ||
| Preclinical T2+ | 57% | 76% | 95% | ||
| Reduction in risk of dying of breast cancer by stage in which (pre)cancer is detected | |||||
| Stage | Reduction in risk | ||||
| Preclinical DCIS | 100% | ||||
| Preclinical T1a | 89.2% | ||||
| Preclinical T1b | 81.4% | ||||
| Preclinical T1c | 56.7% | ||||
| Preclinical T2+ | 39.5% | ||||
| Health stage | Duration (de Haes et al, 1991) | Utility (de Haes et al, 1991) | |||
| Terminal illness | 1 month | 0.712 | |||
| Palliative therapy+chemotherapy | 4 months | 0.469 | |||
| Palliative therapy+radiotherapy | 1 month | 0.419 | |||
| Palliative therapy+surgical therapy | 5 weeks | 0.383 | |||
| Palliative therapy+hormonal therapy | 14 months | 0.337 | |||
| Initial chemotherapy | 6 months | 0.283 | |||
| Initial radiotherapy | 2 months | 0.197 | |||
| Initial surgery | 2 months | 0.133 | |||
| Initial hormonal therapy | 2 years | 0.180 | |||
| Disease-free 2 months–1 year after mastectomy | 10 months | 0.156 | |||
| Disease-free 2 months–1 year after BCT | 10 months | 0.086 | |||
| Disease-free >1year after mastectomy | 1 year | 0.053 | |||
| Disease-free >1 year after BCT | 1 year | 0.040 | |||
| Screening attendance | 1 week | 0.006 | |||