Table 1. Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model.

Parameter	Annual transition probability		References
Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence)	Age
	16–19	0.0855	Barnabas and Garnett, 2004; Schiffman and Kjaer, 2003; Melkert et al, 1993
	20–24	0.2500
	25–29	0.1500
	30–34	0.0576
	35–39	0.0333
	40–44	0.0333
	45–49	0.0333
	50+	0.0222
Cervical HPV infection to Uninfected	Age
	16–29	0.7000	Myers et al, 2000; Hildesheim et al, 1994; Moscicki et al, 1998; Koutsky et al, 1992; Ho et al, 1998; Molano et al, 2003
	30+	0.4130
Cervical HPV infection to CIN 1 or CIN 2	0.0959		Myers et al, 2000; Moscicki et al, 1998
Proportion of Cervical HPV infection progressing directly to CIN 2	0.1350		Myers et al, 2000; Schlecht et al, 2001
CIN 1 to Cervical HPV infection or Uninfected	Age
	16–34	0.2248	Myers et al, 2000; Yokoyama et al, 2003; Syrjanen et al, 1992; de Brux et al, 1983
	35+	0.1124
Proportion CIN 1 regressing directly to Uninfected	0.90		Syrjanen et al, 1992
CIN 1 to CIN 2	Age
	16–34	0.0297	de Brux et al, 1983; Syrjanen et al, 1992; Myers et al, 2000
	35+	0.1485
CIN 1 to CIN 3	0.0301		Yokoyama et al, 2003
CIN 2 to Cervical HPV infection or Uninfected	0.1901		Yokoyama et al, 2003
Proportion CIN 2 regressing directly to Uninfected	0.90		Syrjanen et al, 1992
CIN 2 to CIN 1	0.2430		Syrjanen et al, 1992
CIN2 to CIN 3	Age
	16–34	0.0389	Syrjanen et al, 1992; de Brux et al, 1983; Yokoyama et al, 2003
	35–44	0.0797
	45+	0.1062
CIN 3 to Cervical HPV infection or Uninfected	Age
	16–44	0.0135	Syrjanen et al, 1992
	45+	0.0100
Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to Uninfected	0.50		Syrjanen et al, 1992
CIN 3 to CIN 1	0		—
CIN 3 to CIN 2	0.0135		—
CIN 3 to Invasive cervical cancer	0.0099		Syrjanen et al, 1992; Ostor, 1993; McIndoe et al, 1984
Invasive cervical cancer to Death from invasive cervical cancer	0.025		—
Transitions to Death from other cause	Age
	16–24	0.0003	Office of National Statistics, 2003a
	25–34	0.0004
	35–44	0.0010
	45–54	0.0026
	55–64	0.0066
	65–74	0.0192