Table 6.

Conditional outcome probabilities by repetition block same 1

Repetitions	Conditional outcome probabilities*
	Left branch†	50 50	60 30	30‡ 20	Right branch†	30 60	40 40	15‡ 30	E(π2|Left)	E(π1|Down)
1–5	78/109	64/78	6/14	8/8	31/109	2/31	28/29	0/1	45.4	37.2
	= 0.716	= 0.821	= 0.429	= 1	= 0.284	= 0.065	= 0.966	= 0
6–10	88/108	76/88	1/12	7/11	20/108	0/20	19/20	0/1	45.1	16.6
	= 0.815	= 0.864	= 0.083	= 0.636	= 0.185	= 0	= 0.95	= 0
11–15	94/106	87/94	4/7	3/3	12/106	0/12	12/12	0	48.2	42.8
	= 0.887	= 0.926	= 0.571	= 1	= 0.113	= 0	= 1
16–20	93/110	85/93	3/8	4/5	17/110	1/17	9/16	4/7	47.5	32.5
	= 0.845	= 0.914	= 0.375	= 0.8	= 0.155	= 0.059	= 0.563	= 0.571

^*The conditional probabilities are likelihoods, based on (r/n) = (realizations/no. of observations). 

^†Moves right at x₁ ending with payoff [35, 70] can be inferred from the left and right branch denominators shown in these entries—e.g., 116 of 120 moved right or left in repetition blocks 1–5, implying that four pairs ended at [35, 70]. 

^‡Moves ending with payoffs [0, 0] at these nodes can be inferred from these entries—e.g., if 0 of 1 end at [15, 30], then 1 of 1 ended at [0, 0].