Figure 5. Epidemic effects with perturbed parameter assumptions.

Plots of I_F 1.5 epidemics (Ferguson-like disease manifestation) with best strategy applied showing effects of reduced compliance, local-only mitigation, reduced compliance and local-only mitigation, delayed implementation threshold to 100 cases, and relaxed (3-case/7day) rescinding threshold. Plots are averages of all 100 simulations. Comparisons are to the best strategy plot. a—the best strategy found in these simulations (P+S+CTsd+ASsd). b—best strategy applied at 60% compliance. Note the extended duration of epidemic effects (>160 days), length of time antivirals are required, and greatly increased requirements for adult days at home. c—best strategy applied at 90% compliance with local-only mitigation. Note the increase in use of antivirals, extended epidemic effects and increase in adult days at home. d—best strategy applied at 60% compliance with local-only mitigation. Note the higher peaks in numbers of infected and symptomatic near day 40, the increased use and longer duration of need for antivirals and the longer duration of epidemic effects to nearly 160 days. e—best strategy applied with delayed implementation (when 100 cases have occurred). Note the high, early peak of cases and accompanying need for antivirals until the strategy controls the epidemic at day 120. f—best strategy applied with the 3-case/7 day rescinding threshold. Note the extended duration of the epidemic and the erratic downslope of adult days at home as the mitigation strategy cycles off when the rescinding threshold is met and on again when 10 cases occur (the implementation threshold).