Figure 6. Epidemic effects with extended parameter assumptions.

Plots of I_F 1.5 epidemics (Ferguson-like disease manifestation, at 90% compliance, with regional mitigation) showing extensions of parameter assumptions. Plots are averages of all 100 simulations. Comparisons are to the best strategy plot. a—the best strategy found in these simulations (P+S+CTsd+ASsd). b—best strategy under Longini-like assumptions of influenza natural history. Note the similar peak in numbers of infected and symptomatic, but there are additional and extended requirements for antiviral use, adult days at home and longer duration of epidemic effects. c—best strategy with Longini-like with extended period of infectiousness. Note the elongated downslope (and overall increase) of required adult days at home and long duration of epidemic effects. d—best strategy with similar transmission across age classes. Note the minimal increase in duration of adult days at home and duration of epidemic effects. e—best strategy with augmented social networks. Note the slight increase in duration of adult days at home and the significantly increased duration of epidemic effects. f—best strategy with pre-pandemic vaccine targeted to children and teenagers. Note the similarity in curves of required adult days at home and the slightly decreased duration of epidemic effects (from 100 days to 90 days). g—best strategy and pre-pandemic vaccine targeted to adults. Note the lack of benefit on numbers of infected, symptomatic, adult days at home and the increased duration of epidemic effects (from 100 days to 130 days).