Table 5.
Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for cardiovascular disease for QRISK2 model in derivation cohort (see figure 1 for effect of age on relevant hazard ratios where there are age interactions)
| Women | Men | |
|---|---|---|
| White/not recorded | 1 | 1 |
| Indian | 1.43 (1.24 to 1.65) | 1.45 (1.29 to 1.63) |
| Pakistani | 1.80 (1.5 to 2.17) | 1.97 (1.70 to 2.29) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.35 (1.06 to 1.72) | 1.67 (1.40 to 2.01) |
| Other Asian | 1.15 (0.86 to 1.54) | 1.37 (1.09 to 1.72) |
| Black Caribbean | 1.08 (0.94 to 1.24) | 0.62 (0.53 to 0.73) |
| Black African | 0.58 (0.42 to 0.82) | 0.63 (0.47 to 0.85) |
| Chinese | 0.69 (0.44 to 1.10) | 0.51 (0.32 to 0.83) |
| Other | 1.04 (0.85 to 1.28) | 0.91 (0.75 to 1.10) |
| Age (10% increase)* | 1.66 (1.65 to 1.68) | 1.59 (1.58 to 1.60) |
| BMI (5 unit increase) | 1.08 (1.06 to 1.10) | 1.09 (1.07 to 1.11) |
| Townsend score (5 unit increase) | 1.37 (1.34 to 1.40) | 1.18 (1.16 to 1.20) |
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) (20 unit increase) | 1.20 (1.18 to 1.22) | 1.19 (1.17 to 1.20) |
| Cholesterol/HDL ratio | 1.17 (1.16 to 1.18) | 1.19 (1.18 to 1.20) |
| Family history coronary heart disease | 1.99 (1.92 to 2.05) | 2.14 (2.08 to 2.20) |
| Current smoker | 1.80 (1.75 to 1.86) | 1.65 (1.60 to 1.70) |
| Treated hypertension | 1.54 (1.45 to 1.63) | 1.68 (1.60 to 1.77) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 2.54 (2.33 to 2.77) | 2.20 (2.06 to 2.35) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 1.50 (1.39 to 1.61) | 1.38 (1.25 to 1.52) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 3.06 (2.39 to 3.93) | 2.40 (2.07 to 2.79) |
| Renal disease | 1.70 (1.43 to 2.03) | 1.75 (1.51 to 2.02) |
| Age* BMI interaction | 0.976 (0.970 to 0.982) | 0.985 (0.979 to 0.991) |
| Age* Townsend interaction (5 unit increase in score) | 0.938 (0.930 to 0.946) | 0.973 (0.967 to 0.98) |
| Age* systolic blood pressure interaction (20 unit increase in systolic blood pressure) | 0.966 (0.961 to 0.971) | 0.964 (0.96 to 0.969) |
| Age* family history interaction | 0.927 (0.914 to 0.94) | 0.923 (0.912 to 0.935) |
| Age* smoking interaction | 0.931 (0.920 to 0.943) | 0.932 (0.922 to 0.942) |
| Age* treated hypertension interaction | 0.952 (0.934 to 0.971) | 0.916 (0.901 to 0.931) |
| Age* type 2 diabetes interaction | 0.904 (0.877 to 0.931) | 0.902 (0.881 to 0.924) |
| Age* atrial fibrillation interaction | 0.858 (0.795 to 0.926) | 0.893 (0.852 to 0.935) |
BMI=body mass index; HDL=high density lipoprotein cholesterol.
*All age terms expressed as 10% increase in age (for example, 50 to 55 years).