Table 3 Patients' risk: general practitioners' assessment in comparison with Mellibase‐calculated values (one‐sample statistics; t test).

	n	Doctors' estimates	SD	SEM	Calculated value (MB)	Overestimation by doctors against MB values (%)	Mean difference (test–reference)	95% CI of the difference	p Value
Patient 1
Myocardial infarction	150	61.580	25.542	2.086	34.9	76	26.680	22.559 to 30.801	0.000*
Amputation	149	38.195	25.705	2.106	26.6	44	11.595	7.433 to 15.756	0.000*
Blindness	149	30.872	25.307	2.073	7.1	335	23.773	19.676 to 27.869	0.000*
Renal failure	149	35.664	25.432	2.086	0.6	5844	35.064	30.947 to 39.182	0.000*
Stroke	150	48.653	25.220	2.059	8.9	447	39.753	35.684 to 43.822	0.000*
Patient 2
Myocardial infarction	149	42.946	24.604	2.016	32.2	33	10.746	6.763 to 14.729	0.000*
Amputation	149	18.023	18.745	1.536	21.4	−16	−3.377	−6.411 to −0.342	0.029**
Blindness	149	13.621	16.216	1.329	0.3	4440	13.321	10.696 to 15.946	0.000*
Renal failure	149	17.148	18.566	1.521	0.8	2044	16.348	13.342 to 19.353	0.000*
Stroke	149	38.389	24.966	2.045	24.0	60	14.389	10.347 to 18.431	0.000*
Patient 3
Myocardial infarction.	150	54.533	27.353	2.233	13.4	307	41.133	36.720 to 45.546	0.000*
Amputation	150	36.420	25.892	2.114	6.9	428	29.520	25.343 to 33.697	0.000*
Blindness	150	32.360	25.695	2.098	4.9	560	27.460	23.314 to 31.606	0.000*
Renal failure	150	42.833	28.646	2.339	22.7	89	20.133	15.512 to 24.755	0.000*
Stroke	150	48.367	26.840	2.192	8.8	450	39.567	35.236 to 43.897	0.000*
Patient 4
Myocardial infarction	150	52.220	24.821	2.027	24.9	110	27.320	23.315 to 31.325	0.000*
Amputation	149	31.537	23.528	1.928	9.8	222	21.737	17.928 to 25.546	0.000*
Blindness	150	27.780	23.770	1.941	5.0	456	22.780	18.945 to 26.615	0.000*
Renal failure	150	37.640	26.866	2.194	11.5	227	26.140	21.805 to 30.475	0.000*
Stroke	150	47.780	26.573	2.170	9.1	425	38.680	34.393 to 42.967	0.000*

MB, Mellibase.

*p<0.01, highly significant; **p<0.05, significant.