Table 2. Key input parameters and numerical values corresponding to the South African scenario, for the year 2007.
| Demography | Value | Relative uncertainty range* (%) |
| Initial population size of adults in the geographical setting | 24 470 000 [9] | 0 |
| Crude birth rate | 1.8% per year [28] | 20 |
| Newborns reaching adulthood (age 18) | 88% [29] | 20 |
| Life expectancy when becoming adult (without HIV) | 47 years [30], [31] | 20 |
| Boys circumcised before reaching adulthood | 35% [32] | 10 |
| HIV epidemic model | ||
| Initial HIV prevalence among adults at start of intervention | 24.6% [33] | 20 |
| Ratio of male-to-female and female-to-uncircumcised-male HIV transmission rates, in the absence of MC | 1.5 [34], [35] | 50 |
| Reduction in female-to-male transmission of HIV due to MC | 60% [2] | 20 |
| HIV medical treatment | ||
| Percent of HIV-positive people receiving treatment before becoming eligible for ART | 30% (AE) | 20 |
| Cost of this treatment (total per patient) | $729 US$ (AE) | 50 |
| Percent of HIV-positive people eligible for ART who receive ART | 30% [36] | 50 |
| Life expectancy on ART | 10 years [37] | 50 |
| Cost of ART for eligible patients (per patient per year) | 993 US$ [37] | 50 |
| Percent of HIV-positive people eligible for ART who receive non anti retroviral treatment | 30% (AE) | 50 |
| Cost of this treatment (lifetime total per patient) | 2 743 US$ [37] | 50 |
| MAMC program parameters | ||
| Duration to reach maximum male circumcision prevalence | 5 years (AE) | 0 |
| Number of circumcisions per day per circumciser | 10 (AE) | 50 |
| Number of working days per year | 230 (AE) | 20 |
| Adult males who will remain uncircumcised | 15% (AE) | 50 |
| Public MAMC program cost | ||
| Initial investment per circumcision facility | 28 778 US$ (AE) | 50 |
| Number of circumcisers per circumcision facility | 2 (AE) | 50 |
| Initial training per circumciser | 8 985 US$ (AE) | 50 |
| Salary of each circumciser | 2 246 US$ per month [38] | 50 |
| Salary of health care workers/counsellors per circumciser | 59% of the circumciser [38] | 50 |
| Supplies cost per patient circumcised | 11 US$ [12] | 50 |
| Facility and program overheads (detail in text) | 110% of all costs (AE) | 50 |
| Private MAMC program cost | ||
| Circumcision cost | 72 US$ (AE) | 50 |
| Annual program overhead cost | 10% (AE) | 50 |
| Miscellaneous parameters | ||
| Discount rate | 3% per year [16] | 0 |
The same assumptions were used for other countries and settings, except for the country-specific parameters given in Table 1 and for unit costs adjusted to reflect differences in gross domestic product per capita (see text).
AE = author's estimates.
*
A range of x% for a parameter of a value v indicates that the range in which this parameter was varied from v(1−x) to v(1+x).