Table 1.
Estimation for parameters in the Markov model
| Parameter | Baseline | Range | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susceptible IDUs | |||
| Probability of developing acute infection | 0.1 | 0.08–0.12 | 13–15 |
| Probability of stopping injecting drugs | 0 | 0–0.8 | Estimated |
| Probability of disease-free mortality | 0.035 | 0.033–0.081 | 30,31 |
| Susceptible non-IDUs | |||
| Probability of developing acute infection | 0.0004 | 0.0004–0.0006 | 1 |
| Probability of disease-free mortality | 0.017 | 0.013–0.017 | Estimated |
| Acute infection state | |||
| Proportion of asymptomatic infection | 0.6 | 20 | |
| Proportion of symptomatic infection | 0.4 | 20 | |
| Proportion of hospitalization | 0.12 | 20 | |
| Proportion of non-hospitalization | 0.88 | 20 | |
| Probability of developing fulminant hepatitis | 0.005 | 0.001–0.01 | 32,33 |
| Probability of developing chronic hepatitis | 0.05 | 0.02–0.1 | 34 |
| Probability of recovery | 0.94 | 35 | |
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.005 | 0.005–0.01 | 35 |
| Fulminant hepatitis state | |||
| Probability of undergoing liver transplantation | 0.2 | 0.11–0.3 | 36 |
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.7 | 0.6–0.8 | 37–39 |
| Chronic hepatitis state | |||
| Probability of developing compensated cirrhosis | 0.121 | 0.004–0.142 | 36 |
| Probability of developing HCC | 0.005 | 0.002–0.007 | 36 |
| Probability of recovery | 0.1 | 0.095–0.105 | 36 |
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.025 | 0.018–0.036 | 33,40 |
| Compensated cirrhosis state | |||
| Probability of developing decompensatedcirrhosis | 0.044 | 0.028–0.083 | 41–43 |
| Probability of developing HCC | 0.024 | 0.013–0.055 | 44–47 |
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.036 | 0.03–0.044 | 36 |
| Decompensated cirrhosis state | |||
| Probability of developing HCC | 0.024 | 0.013–0.055 | 44–47 |
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.275 | 0.225–0.325 | 42,44,48 |
| Probability of undergoing liver transplantation | 0.018 | 0.015–0.024 | 36 |
| HCC state | |||
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.429 | 0.259–0.503 | 36 |
| Probability of undergoing liver transplantation | 0.045 | 0.036–0.071 | 36 |
| Liver transplantation for fulminant | |||
| Probability of disease-specific excess mortality | 0.07 | 0.066–0.104 | 49–51 |
IDU, injection drug user; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma