Table 2. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of a gain in BMI, a gain in CD4 cells or both, for predicting virological success at 6 months.
| Gain in BMI and/or CD4 cells | No. of patients (N)a | No. with virological success (n)b | Se (%) | Sp (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gain in BMI | ||||||
| ≥ 0 kg/m² | 482 | 406 | 78 | 23 | 84 | 16 |
| ≥ +1 kg/m² | 318 | 269 | 51 | 50 | 85 | 16 |
| ≥ +2 kg/m² | 160 | 139 | 27 | 79 | 87 | 17 |
| ≥ +3 kg/m² | 78 | 67 | 13 | 89 | 86 | 16 |
| ≥ +4 kg/m² | 38 | 32 | 6 | 94 | 84 | 16 |
| Gain in CD4 | ||||||
| ≥ 0/μl | 555 | 474 | 91 | 18 | 85 | 27 |
| ≥ +50/μl | 474 | 407 | 78 | 32 | 86 | 22 |
| ≥ +100/μl | 393 | 341 | 65 | 46 | 87 | 20 |
| ≥ +150/μl | 302 | 263 | 51 | 61 | 87 | 19 |
| ≥ +200/μl | 205 | 172 | 33 | 67 | 84 | 16 |
| ≥ +250/μl | 127 | 105 | 20 | 78 | 83 | 16 |
| ≥ +300/μl | 81 | 70 | 14 | 89 | 87 | 16 |
| Combined gains | ||||||
| ≥ 0 kg/m² and ≥ 0/μl | 440 | 373 | 71 | 32 | 85 | 18 |
| ≥ +1 kg/m² and ≥ +50/μl | 256 | 219 | 42 | 63 | 86 | 17 |
| ≥ +1 kg/m² and ≥ +100/μl | 209 | 181 | 35 | 72 | 87 | 17 |
| ≥ +1 kg/m² and ≥ +200/μl | 114 | 94 | 18 | 80 | 82 | 16 |
| ≥ +2 kg/m² and ≥ +50/μl | 135 | 116 | 22 | 81 | 86 | 16 |
| ≥ +2 kg/m² and ≥ +100/μl | 113 | 98 | 19 | 85 | 87 | 16 |
| ≥ +2 kg/m² and ≥ +200/μl | 65 | 55 | 10 | 90 | 85 | 16 |
BMI, body mass index; CD4, CD4+ T-cell count; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Se, sensitivity; Sp, specificity. a No. of patients in whom the gain in BMI and/or the gain in CD4 is higher than the corresponding threshold at 6 months. b No. of patients with undetectable viral load at 6 months.