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. 1998 Nov 10;95(23):13881–13886. doi: 10.1073/pnas.95.23.13881

Table 3.

Cases and deaths by region in the baseline DOTS strategy and averted cases and deaths by region for alternative strategies, 1998–2030

Tuberculosis cases, millions
Tuberculosis deaths, millions
EME FSE LAC/MEC Asia SSA World EME FSE LAC/MEC Asia SSA World
Total cases, millions Total deaths, millions
Baseline DOTS 3.3 2.2 15.4 136.7 66.9 224.5 0.2 0.3 4.2 46.6 27.5 78.8
Cases averted compared to baseline (millions) Deaths averted compared to baseline (millions)
Existing technologies
 DOTSNeg * * 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.7 * * 0.1 1.3 0.4 1.9
 ACF-Sx-1 0.02 0.07 0.7 7.2 5.6 13.6 0.01 0.02 0.3 3.1 2.7 6.1
 ACF-Sx 0.04 0.11 1.3 15.9 12.9 30.3 0.01 0.03 0.5 6.8 5.9 13.3
 ACF-MMR-1 0.04 0.13 1.3 12.9 10.1 24.4 0.01 0.04 0.5 5.8 5.0 11.4
 ACF-MMR 0.07 0.19 2.2 26.1 20.5 49.1 0.02 0.05 0.9 11.7 9.9 22.6
 MassPT 0.10 0.16 2.8 24.5 15.0 42.6 0.01 0.04 0.8 9.1 6.7 16.7
 PTHIV5 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
 PTHIV10 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.9 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8
New technologies
 Smear75 * * 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.9 * * 0.2 1.0 1.4 2.6
 Smear95 * * 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.6 * * 0.3 1.8 2.6 4.7
 UltraSCC 0.00 0.04 0.6 18.8 4.3 23.8 0.00 0.01 0.3 8.2 2.1 10.7
 VacBr20 0.03 0.03 0.6 10.1 5.4 16.2 0.00 0.00 0.1 2.4 1.6 4.1
 VacBr50 0.07 0.08 1.4 22.6 12.1 36.1 0.00 0.01 0.3 5.6 3.5 9.4
 VacBr80 0.10 0.12 2.0 32.3 17.1 51.6 0.01 0.01 0.4 8.1 5.1 13.7
 VacInf20 0.02 0.02 0.4 6.6 3.4 10.5 0.00 0.00 0.1 1.6 1.0 2.7
 VacInf50 0.05 0.05 0.9 15.4 8.0 24.5 0.00 0.00 0.2 3.8 2.3 6.3
 VacInf80 0.07 0.08 1.5 23.2 12.2 37.0 0.00 0.01 0.3 5.8 3.6 9.6
Combination strategies
 ACF-MMR + MassPT 0.13 0.23 3.7 36.4 24.4 64.8 0.02 0.06 1.2 14.4 11.1 26.7
 ACF-MMR + VacBr50 0.12 0.25 3.1 39.8 25.5 68.7 0.02 0.06 1.0 14.8 11.2 27.1
 ACF-MMR + UltraSCC 0.08 0.23 2.8 44.2 24.6 71.8 0.02 0.06 1.1 19.0 11.7 32.0
 Smear95 + UltraSCC 0.00 0.04 0.8 19.3 6.0 26.2 0.00 0.01 0.5 9.0 4.4 13.9
*

Indicates no averted cases or deaths over baseline. Cells containing 0.0 indicate >0 but <5,000 cases or deaths averted.