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. 2008 May 27;93(8):3037–3044. doi: 10.1210/jc.2008-0448

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Decision analysis model. P(cancer), Probability of cancer; observation_cancer, utility of observation alone in the setting of thyroid cancer; P(inad_FNAB), probability of repeatedly inadequate FNABs; surgery_benign, utility of surgery for a benign nodule; P(indet_FNAB), probability of indeterminate FNAB; P(hyperfunction), probability that a nodule with an indeterminate FNAB result will be hyperfunctioning on I-123 scintigraphy; P(indet_cancer), probability that a nodule with indeterminate FNAB (and not hyperfunctioning on I-123 scintigraphy) will be cancer; P(pos_FNAB), probability of positive (malignant) FNAB reading; TP, true positive; PPV(FNAB), PPV of FNAB; FP, false positive; NPV(FNAB), NPV of FNAB; FN, false negative; TN, true negative; mCa, microcalcifications; P(pos_mCa), probability of observing mCa on US; PPV(mCa), PPV of mCa; NPV(mCa), NPV of mCa; P(pos_FNAB_mCa), probability of positive (malignant) FNAB reading when mCa are present; PPV(FNAB_mCa), PPV of FNAB when mCa are present; NPV(FNAB_mCa), NPV of FNAB when mCa are present; hypo-plus, hypoechoic plus at least one other US risk factor; P(pos_hypo-plus), probability of observing hypo-plus on US; PPV(hypo-plus), PPV of hypo-plus; NPV(hypo-plus), NPV of hypo-plus; P(pos_FNAB_hypo-plus), probability of positive (malignant) FNAB reading when hypo-plus present; PPV(FNAB_hypo-plus), PPV of FNAB when hypo-plus present; NPV(FNAB_hypo-plus), NPV of FNAB when hypo-plus present.