Table 1.
Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and aROC reported from prospective studies reporting on the association between the metabolic syndrome and incident diabetes
| Reference number | Year | Metabolic syndrome definition | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | aROC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 2002 | Modified WHO 1998, WHR ≥0.91 | 0.67 | 0.80 | |||
| Modified WHO 1998, WC ≥94 cm | 0.57 | 0.83 | |||||
| NCEP 2001, WC >102 cm | 0.41 | 0.90 | |||||
| NCEP 2001, WC >94 cm | 0.49 | 0.84 | |||||
| 20 | 2003 | NCEP 2001 | 0.528 | 0.849 | 0.308 | 0.934 | 0.776 |
| Modified WHO 1999 | 0.428 | 0.872 | 0.304 | 0.921 | 0.762 | ||
| 21 | 2004 | NCEP 2001 (SAHS) | 0.662 | 0.722 | |||
| NCEP 2001 (MCDS) | 0.624 | 0.613 | |||||
| 35 | 2005 | NCEP 2001 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| NCEP 2001, FPG 100–125 mg/dl | 0.64 | 0.74 | 0.32 | 0.91 | 0.75 | ||
| NCEP 2001, augmented | 0.81 | 0.61 | 0.29 | 0.94 | 0.78 | ||
| 23 | 2005 | NCEP 2001 | 0.69 | ||||
| WHO 1999 | 0.68 | ||||||
| IDF 2005 | 0.68 | ||||||
| 10 | 2005 | Number of abnormalities over 10 years | 0.626 | 0.747 | 0.72 | ||
| Number of abnormalities over 20 years | 0.539 | 0.757 | 0.70 | ||||
| 25 | 2007 | IDF 2005 | 0.703 | 0.746 | |||
| AHA/NHLBI 2005 | 0.611 | 0.831 | |||||
| Modified WHO 1999 | 0.549 | 0.866 | |||||
| 26 | 2007 | AHA/NHLBI 2005 | 0.82–0.85 | ||||
| IDF 2005 | 0.82–0.85 | ||||||
| EGIR 1999 | 0.78–0.84 | ||||||
| 27 | 2007 | NCEP 2001 | 0.258 | 0.939 | 0.246 | 0.943 | |
| NHLBI/AHA 2004 | 0.342 | 0.919 | 0.244 | 0.948 | |||
| AHA/NHLBI 2005 | 0.419 | 0.875 | 0.205 | 0.951 | |||
| IDF 2005 | 0.317 | 0.902 | 0.199 | 0.945 | |||
| 29 | 2007 | Modified WHO 1999 | 0.421 | 0.882 | 0.268 | 0.937 | |
| NCEP 2001 | 0.389 | 0.850 | 0.208 | 0.932 | |||
| EGIR 1999 | 0.224 | 0.921 | 0.224 | 0.921 | |||
| IDF 2005 | 0.240 | 0.907 | 0.209 | 0.921 | |||
| IDF 2005 with WHO obesity | 0.464 | 0.838 | 0.226 | 0.939 | |||
| NCEP 2001 with WHO obesity | 0.553 | 0.793 | 0.214 | 0.946 | |||
| IDF 2005 with reduced WC | 0.498 | 0.792 | 0.196 | 0.939 | |||
| 31 | 2008 | WHO 1999 | 0.564 | 0.829 | 0.115 | 0.980 | |
| NCEP 2004 | 0.622 | 0.764 | 0.099 | 0.981 | |||
| EGIR 1999 | 0.464 | 0.859 | 0.116 | 0.976 | |||
| IDF 2005 | 0.649 | 0.713 | 0.082 | 0.981 | |||
| 32 | 2008 | Modified WHO 1999 | 0.5479 | 0.9081 | 0.1973 | 0.9799 | |
| NCEP 2001 | 0.6075 | 0.7327 | 0.0863 | 0.9782 | 0.72 | ||
| IDF 2005 | 0.7219 | 0.6468 | 0.0779 | 0.9824 | |||
| NHLBI/AHA 2004 | 0.7043 | 0.6999 | 0.0889 | 0.9827 | 0.74 |
ADA, American Diabetes Association; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; MCDS, Mexico City Diabetes Study; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SAHS, San Antonio Heart Study; WC, waist circumference; WHR, waist-to-hip ratio.