Figure 3. Estimated Hazard Factors for the 514 Patients in the Study According to Clinical Status.

Panel A shows the estimated hazard factors calculated as a function of the percent of the predicted value for forced expiratory volume in 1 second, but the data have been arranged as a series of nine scatter plots in order to identify strata. Panel B shows the estimated hazard factors as a function of the 5-year predicted survival probability, ⁴ expressed as the percent likelihood of survival for 5 years after the date of the last clinic visit before placement on the waiting list. The data are arranged as a series of nine scatter plots in order to identify 5-year predicted survival strata. The hazard factor has no relationship with the 5-year predicted survival (P = 0.87), but it decreases significantly with the FEV₁% (P<0.001). Patients with higher lung function appeared to have less harmful outcomes from lung transplantation, perhaps because of a significant decrease in the FEV₁% with age. Neither FEV₁% nor the 5-year predicted survival probability is helpful for selecting patients who are likely to have a benefit from lung transplantation from among children with cystic fibrosis who have already been selected for the waiting list.