Table 2. Performance of the models during empirical cross-validation.

		Unlinked model	Linked model
Proportion of isolates correctly assigned	Actual	0.52	0.64
	Predicted	0.82	0.64
Bias	Chicken	−0.10	−0.03
	Cattle	−0.13	0.00
	Sheep	0.20	0.03
	Pig	0.01	0.00
	Bird	0.00	−0.01
	Rabbit	0.00	0.01
	Sand	−0.01	0.00
	Water	0.03	0.00
RMSE	Chicken	0.11	0.04
	Cattle	0.14	0.07
	Sheep	0.21	0.07
	Pig	0.01	0.01
	Bird	0.03	0.02
	Rabbit	0.02	0.02
	Sand	0.01	0.01
	Water	0.05	0.01
Coverage	Chicken	12	93
	Cattle	19	97
	Sheep	5	97
	Pig	76	99
	Bird	86	99
	Rabbit	73	100
	Sand	93	99
	Water	84	99

The unlinked and linked models are defined in the Methods. The predicted proportion of isolates correctly assigned assumes that isolates are assigned to their most probable source a posteriori. Bias, RMSE (root mean squared error) and coverage are reported for the proportion of isolates estimated to originate from each source. Coverage was defined as the number of simulations, out of 100, in which the true proportion fell inside the 95% credible interval.