Table 1.

The results of changing key parameters on the prevalence of carriers and the specificity and sensitivity of post-epidemic testing of vaccinated farms.

parameter change	mean within-herd prevalence of carriers	percentage of vaccinated farms that are carriers	specificity of testing at herd level (%)	sensitivity of testing at herd level (%)
vaccinate herds with more than 50 cattle, Devon	1.18	0.16	99.3	39.6
mean initial infections=5% of herd size	1.30	0.14	99.5	49.5
two clinicals to be an IP	1.36	0.17	99.3	44.6
three clinicals to be an IP	1.42	0.19	99.3	46.0
vaccine effect 50% slower	1.28	0.11	99.3	43.5
Cumbria	1.21	0.13	99.3	44.8
Cheshire	1.26	0.17	99.3	42.6
25% of infected cattle →carriers	1.05	0.12	99.3	38.0
75% of infected cattle →carriers	1.33	0.18	99.3	50.2
mean initial infections=5% of herd size, 2% of herd clinical for detection	1.51	0.18	99.4	46.7