Table 2.

Incidence of Year 20 Metabolic Syndrome by Year 15 Oxidized Low-Density Lipoprotein or Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Concentrations (N = 1889 Without Metabolic Syndrome at Year 15)^a

	Quintiles of Oxidized LDL (U/L)
	1(<55.4)	2(55.4–69.1)	3(69.2–81.2)	4(81.3–97.3)	5(≥97.4)	P Value for Trend
Cases/No.	20/377	39/378	51/373	76/375
Modelb
1	1 [Reference]	2.0 (1.2–3.6)	2.7 (1.6–4.7)	3.0 (1.7–5.1)	4.1 (2.4–7.0)	<.001
2	1 [Reference]	2.0 (1.1–3.6)	2.2 (1.3–.4.0)	2.5 (1.4–4.5)	3.1 (1.8–5.4)	<.001
3	1 [Reference]	2.1 (1.1–3.8)	2.4 (1.3–4.3)	2.8 (1.5–5.1)	3.5 (1.9–6.6)	<.001
	Quintiles of LDL Cholesterol (mg/dL)
	1(<86)	2(86–101)	3(102–118)	4(119–138)	5(≥139)
Cases/No.	30/367	51/381	42/396	56/364	64/381
Modelb
1	1 [Reference]	1.8 (1.1–2.9)	1.3 (0.8–2.2)	2.0 (1.2–3.2)	2.1 (1.3–3.4)	.002
2	1 [Reference]	1.5 (0.9–2.5)	1.0 (0.6–1.8)	1.7 (1.1–2.9)	1.5 (0.9–2.5)	.07
3	1 [Reference]	1.2 (0.7–2.0)	0.7 (0.4–1.3)	1.1 (0.6–1.9)	0.9 (0.5–1.5)	.55

SI conversion factors: To convert low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol to millimoles per liter, multiply values by 0.0259.

^aData are presented as odds ratio (95% confidence interval).

^bModel 1 is adjusted for age, sex, race, and study center. Model 2 is adjusted for model 1 variables and for year 15 cigarette smoking status, physical activity, and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). Model 3 is adjusted for model 2 variables and for year 15 LDL cholesterol or oxidized LDL.