Figure 2.

Predicted baseline screening mammography primary performance measure: cancer detection rate (CDR). The probability of a true-positive outcome is equivalent to the CDR, or breast cancers detected per 1000 screening mammograms for women ages 35–65. We calculated the CDR using both one-year and two-year sensitivity estimates with no range assumed for prevalence. Sensitivity is the probability that a radiologist interprets a mammogram as positive in screened women who have a cancer diagnosis over one or two years of follow-up. The 90^th (high error bars) and 10^th (low error bars) percentile of radiologist performance for sensitivity generates the range around the one year predictions.