Table 1 Baseline parameter values used in mathematical model.
Parameter | Value | Source |
---|---|---|
Behavioural parameters | ||
Preferred number of concurrent partners | 1 or 2 | |
Proportion wanting 2 partners (<35 years old) | 0.05 | Assumption based on Kretzschmar model12 |
Initial proportion of 16 year olds desiring short partnerships | Fitted to Natsal 200014,18 | |
Men | 0.6 | |
Women | 0.5 | |
Proportion who switch from desiring short to long partnerships per year | Fitted to Natsal 200014,18 | |
Men | 0.04 | |
Women | 0.08 | |
Mean duration of short partnerships (in days) | 14 | Assumption |
Mean duration of long partnerships for 16 year olds (in days) | 900 | Fitted to Natsal 200014,18 |
Increase in duration (in days) per year | 200 | Fitted to Natsal 200014,18 |
Mean gap between partnerships (in days), (dispersion)* | 14 (2) | Assumption |
Number of sex acts per day | Assumption based on Kretzschmar model12 | |
Short partnerships | 1 | |
Long partnerships | 0.25 | |
Infection parameters | ||
Transmission probability per sex act | 0.0375 | Fitted to Natsal 200017 and Adams et al4 |
Duration, no treatment seeking (in days) | 180 | Assumption |
Duration, treatment seeking (in days) | 30 | Assumption |
Proportion seeking treatment | Fitted to Natsal 200017 and Adams et al4 | |
Men | 0.0 | |
Women | 0.045 | |
Mean refractory period following treatment (in days), (dispersion)* | 7 (10) | Assumption based on CEG guidelines21 |
Healthcare parameters (baseline) | ||
Annual attendance rate at health care setting (proportion who report attending a healthcare setting in the last 12 months) | 0.85 | Chlamydia Recall Study20 |
Probability of accepting screen | 0.5 | Assumption based on screening studies19,22 |
Proportion of partners notified | 0.2 | Fitted to Natsal 200017 and Adams et al4 |
Treatment efficacy (in those partner notified or screened) | 0.95 | Treatment guidelines23 |
Mean delay (in days) before partner treatment (dispersion)* | 7 (10) | Assumption based on Recall Study (unpublished) |
Adapted from Turner et al.14
*Parameters drawn from a negative binomial distribution, mean, and dispersion.