Table 1 Input variables for model of pandemic influenza in France: population and proportion of cases, admissions to hospital, and deaths.

	Total	0–19 years	20–64 years	⩾65 years
Population*	59.6 million	15.0 million	34.9 million	9.7 million
Number (%) at “high risk”†	8.7 million (14.5%)	2.0 million (13.5%)	1.8 million (5%)	4.9 million (50%)
Number (%) to be prioritised for protection‡	3.64 million (6%)	0. 04 million (0.2%)	3.6 million (10%)	0 million (0%)
Clinical attack rate§	25%
Distribution of cases¶	100%	40%	50%	10%
Lethality
Standard risk		0.5%	0.75%	1.5%
High risk		1.0%	1.5%	2.0%
% of cases hospitalised
Standard risk		2.0%	3.0%	5.0%
High risk		10.0%	12.5%	15.0%

*Total population of France metropole on 1 January 2003. Source: INSEE (provisional evaluation based on results of 1999 census). †Persons with medical or social characteristics rendering them at high risk of complications from influenza: 50% of those aged 65 years and over; all those <65 years of age with a long term illnesses listed in the French national vaccination recommendations 2003¹³: all those <65 years who live in an institution; pregnant women; infants <2 years of age. ‡Essential healthcare and public service personnel as defined in French pandemic preparedness plan.¹² §Nguyen 2003.¹⁴ Clinical case is symptomatic case of influenza regardless of whether they consult a doctor or not. ¶Based on Meltzers⁶ estimates using data from 1918, 1928–29, and 1957 epidemic and pandemics (distribution A: 0–19 40%, 20–64 53.1%, 65+6.8%).