Table 2.

Local test of support for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) models of shifts in environmental conditions

Clade	sqrt (Altitude)	ln (Precipitation)	ln (Emberger Index)	minimum Temperature	maximum Temperature
error = 0
1	0.337/0.662/<0.001	0.097/0.857/0.046	0.149/0.845/0.006	0.062/0.376/0.562	0.165/0.835/<0.001
2	0.107/0.891/0.001	0.876/0.117/0.006	0.842/0.157/0.001	0.141/0.344/0.514	0.161/0.839/<0.001
3	0.157/0.842/0.001	0.565/0.413/0.022	0.895/0.104/<0.001	0.041/0.385/0.574	0.105/0.895/<0.001
4	0.519/0.481/<0.001	0.090/0.864/0.047	0.099/0.894/0.006	0.040/0.385/0.575	0.308/0.692/<0.001
5	0.093/0.906/0.001	0.394/0.575/0.031	0.440/0.556/0.004	0.984/0.006/0.009	0.145/0.855/<0.001
error = estimated squared standard error
1	0.021/0.010/0.970	0.043/0.361/0.596	0.037/0.206/0.757	0.048/0.010/0.942	<0.001/0.006/0.994
2	0.022/0.010/0.968	0.567/0.163/0.270	0.276/0.155/0.570	0.006/0.010/0.984	0.001/0.006/0.993
3	0.011/0.010/0.980	0.179/0.309/0.511	0.180/0.175/0.645	0.002/0.010/0.988	<0.001/0.006/0.994
4	0.134/0.009/0.857	0.038/0.363/0.600	0.023/0.209/0.768	0.002/0.010/0.988	0.002/0.006/0.992
5	0.001/0.010/0.989	0.148/0.321/0.531	0.075/0.198/0.727	1.000/<0.001/<0.001	0.001/0.006/0.993

For each variable, 7 models were evaluated: five dual-equilibrium O-U models corresponding to a single change in environment at the base of each of the five indicated clades; the single-equilibrium O-U model, in which all clades are modelled as occurring in a single environment; and the Brownian motion (constant variance) model. Values in each cell are Bayes information criterion (BIC) weights for: the dual-equilibrium O-U model/the single-equilibrium O-U model/the Brownian motion model. The first value is interpreted as the posterior probability that the origins of the clade were associated with a shift in environmental parameters. Measurement error for the lower portion of the table was estimated as indicated in the text.