Figure 4. Bayesian melding for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence (on the Y-axis) in urban areas of Namibia (A) based on antenatal clinic data only, and (B) calibrated to represent prevalence among the overall urban population. The coloured lines with symbols show the raw antenatal clinic prevalence. The light grey curves are a sample from the posterior distribution of the prevalence curve, and the red curve is the posterior mode. The broken lines show the year-specific 95% confidence intervals for prevalence.