Figure 3. Influence of CCL3L1-CCR5 GRG status on vaccine efficacy.
(a) Estimated vaccine efficacy as a function of the percentage of subjects that are misallocated (m) with respect to their CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype across the placebo or vaccine trial arms. The model is for a preventive vaccine that has a true efficacy of 50%. The upper line in this plot depicts estimated vaccine efficacy as a function of misallocation of subjects with a low GRG towards the vaccine arm, resulting in a fallacious increase in the estimated vaccine efficacy. The lower line depicts the converse situation, i.e., misallocation of subjects with a low GRG towards the placebo arm, resulting in a fallacious decrease in the estimated vaccine efficacy. (b) Plots depict the difference (relative error) between the true and estimated vaccine efficacy as a percentage of the true vaccine efficacy for varying values of m. Methods are described in SOM, section 2.
