Table 2. Parameter estimates for different models of trachoma natural history using the best estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of tests of infection and disease.

Stage (Markov model state label in Figure 1B)	Median duration and approximate 95% confidence intervals			Time units
	Standard model Log-likelihood = 1743.1	Modified model Log-likelihood = 1736.1	Modified model with active disease sustained by repeat infection Log-likelihood = 1727.9
Infection (2 & 4)	17.2 (13.7, 23.0)	18.2 (13.9, 26.2)	14.4 (10.3, 20.6)	weeks
Active disease (4 & 3)	21.1 (16.8, 28.4)	23.2 (18.9, 32.5)	26.9 (19.9, 38.4)	weeks
Incubation (2)	17.4 (10.9, 27.7)	15.4 (6.9, 32.8)	20.0 (10.5, 34.8)	days
Post-infection inflammation (3)	5.4 (3.6, 8.0)	5.1 (3.4, 7.7)	3.6 (2.2, 5.5)	weeks