Table 2.

Posterior estimates of regression coefficients and the variances related to random effects obtained by the different models

Coefficients	Non-Spatial Model	Spatial Model	Spatial Model + Non-structured random effects	Spatial-seasonal model
Age
< = 1 year old	0.49 (0.22,0.73)	0.49 (0.22, 0.76)	0.49 (0.24, 0.77)	0.49 (0.24, 0.75)
(1 and 5 years)	0.59 (0.35, 0.75)	0.59 (0.35, 0.85)	0.56 (0.35, 0.86)	0.60 (0.34, 0.86)
Over 5 years	baseline	baseline	baseline	baseline
Season
Wet	0.10 (-0.26, 0.45)	0.07 (-0.30, 0.42)	0.06 (-0.31, 0.42)	0.29 (-0.13, 0.73)
Dry	baseline	baseline	baseline	baseline
Period
First	-0.39 (-0.71, -0.07)	-0.37 (-0.69, -0.05)	-0.37 (-0.70, -0.04)	-0.35 (-0.66, -0.02)
Second	-0.03 (-0.40, 0.33)	-0.04 (-0.42, 0.33)	-0.04 (-0.41, 0.32)	-0.03 (-0.42, 0.35)
Third	baseline	baseline	baseline	baseline
Season × Period
Wet & Second	0.49 (0.02, 0.98)	0.49 (0.03,0.96)	0.49 (0.03, 0.98)	0.462 (-0.02, 0.94)
Wet & Second	0.76 (0.30, 1.25)	0.82 (0.33, 1.32)	0.82 (0.35, 1.30)	0.792 (0.32, 1.28)
Random effects
Spatial variation	-	1.29 (0.68, 0.93)	1.26 (0.97, 1.59)	1.67 (1.18, 2.28)1
				1.22 (0.93, 1.57)2
Non-structured variation	-	-	0.18 (0.06,0.39)	-
DIC3	2333.65	2060.16	2061.59	2070.090

¹spatial variance for the dry season, ² spatial variance for the wet season, ³ DIC: Deviance Information Criterion. The smaller DIC value indicates a better fitting model. Credibility intervals at 95% in brackets