Table 4.
Performance of Prognostic Tests in PBC: Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with 95% confidence intervals
| AREA UNDER ROC (CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEST | Years Prior to First Complication | ||||
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | |
| European Liver Fibrosis Panel | 0.748
(0.651-0.845) |
0.739
(0.653-0.825) |
0.682
(0.578-0.786) |
0.684
(0.528-0.841) |
0.784
(0.600-0.968) |
| Ishak Score
(0-6) |
0.732
(0.627-0.836) |
0.743
(0.647-0.839) |
0.721
(0.617-0.824) |
0.751
(0.606-0.896) |
0.584
(0.423-0.745) |
| PBC Stage
(1-4) |
0.706
(0.583-0.829) |
0.675
(0.562-0.788) |
0.634
(0.505-0.764) |
0.657
(0.471-0.843) |
0.305
(0.077-0.534) |
| Bilirubin
(loge) |
0.650
(0.526-0.774) |
0.659
(0.541-0.777) |
0.617
(0.501-0.732) |
0539
(0.368-0.711) |
0.559
(0.098-1.0) |
| MELD | 0.642
(0.538-0.746) |
0.630
(0.531-0.729) |
0.544
(0.439-0.649) |
0.592
(0.455-0.730) |
0.612
(0.327-0.898) |
| Mayo PBC Risk Score | 0.680
(0.564-0.796) |
0.625
(0.518-0.733) |
0.501
(0.388-0.614) |
0.431
(0.294-0.568) |
0.441
(0.119-0.763) |