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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2010 Jan 1.
Published in final edited form as: Int J Cancer. 2009 Jan 1;124(1):157–166. doi: 10.1002/ijc.23864

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Model structure of gastric cancer natural history. The model simulates the natural history of gastric carcinogenesis through a series of health states (normal gastric mucosa, chronic nonatrophic gastritis, gastric atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, dysplasia and gastric cancer). Each month, individuals can progress and regress among the health states and face age-dependent risks of dying from other causes. H. pylori-infected individuals face higher probabilities of progressing to gastritis and atrophy. Not shown are unique health states, which were defined to distinguish individuals with H. pylori infection and gastric cancer detected through symptoms, and the dead state.