Table 2. Simulated final and peak daily attack rates for epidemics with non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Intervention scenario | R0 = 1.5 | R0 = 2.0 | R0 = 2.5 | |||
Final attack rate % | Peak daily attack rate (cases per 10000) | Final attack rate % | Peak daily attack rate (cases per 10000) | Final attack rate % | Peak daily attack rate (cases per 10000) | |
Baseline | 33 | 89 | 55 | 279 | 65 | 474 |
School Closure | 13 | 20 | 45 | 146 | 60 | 321 |
Case Isolation | 6 | 9.0 | 30 | 78 | 49 | 221 |
Workplace Nonattendance | 24 | 54 | 48 | 210 | 60 | 389 |
Community Contact Reduction | 16 | 25 | 41 | 142. | 55 | 291 |
School Closure+Case Isolation | 3 | 4.0 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 67 |
School Closure+Workplace Nonattendance | 6 | 10 | 34 | 80 | 54 | 25 |
School Closure+Community Contact Reduction | 3 | 5.0 | 12 | 17 | 36 | 89 |
All Measures | 2 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Final attack rates and peak daily attack rates are given as percentages of the population, for epidemics with baseline R0 values of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5. For each measure or combination of measures, results are given for optimal application (pre-emptive activation and indefinite duration). All results are means of 40 independent randomly seeded simulation runs.