Table 5. Annual percentage rates of increase or decrease of a stable age structure model California condor population under various scenarios for the reduction of exposure to spent lead ammunition.

	Non-lead mortality: immature = adult			Non-lead mortality: immature = 2×adult
	0.90	0.95	0.99	0.90	0.95	0.99
Most likely
No Pb mortality	−0.7	+4.8	+9.2	−4.8	+2.6	+8.8
As now	−5.8	−0.5	+3.7	−9.6	−2.6	+3.2
No reduction	−21.2	−16.8	−13.3	−24.4	−18.6	−13.7
UT reduction as in AZ now	−2.2	+3.2	+7.5	−6.2	+1.0	+7.1
Maximum conceivable
No Pb mortality	+4.4	+10.2	+14.8	−0.8	+7.4	+14.2
As now	−0.9	+4.6	+9.0	−5.9	+2.0	+8.4
No reduction	−17.2	−12.6	−8.9	−21.3	−14.7	−9.3
UT reduction as in AZ now	+2.8	+8.5	+13.0	−2.4	+5.8	+12.5

Details of the scenarios are given in the text and the legend to Table 4. For each scenario, the rate of increase is shown for three plausible annual survival rates for adults in the absence of mortality caused by lead (0.90, 0.95 and 0.99) and for the annual non-lead mortality rate of immatures in the absence of lead being equal to that of adults or twice that of adults. Deaths caused by lead poisoning are assumed to occur in addition to those from other causes. Results are shown for the “Most likely” and “Maximum conceivable” reproductive scenarios [8].