Figure 11.

Plot showing an idealized climate variation over time. The y-axis represents the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs during the fire season (i.e. fire hazard); large fire years are expected in the squared area, whereas low fire activity is expected in the waved area. During period (a), the climate remains locked in a dry phase and large fire weather occurs very frequently; decadal to centennial scales in the fire–climate relationships are expected. During period (b), the climate remains locked in a wet phase and large fire years occur very infrequently; however, in period (c), the climate enters a highly variable state and both wet and dry years occur. In periods (b) and (c), interannual climate variation is expected to be the most prominent source of large fire variability.