Table 1.

Results from the hierarchical path analysis of how climate affects red deer autumn body mass from Norway, years 1982–2004. (All variables except age and municipality are standardized. Effect of age assumes a threshold at 3 years of age, with a third-order cubic term for younger individuals and a linear effect only for older individuals.)

		95% credible intervals
parameter	estimate	lower limit	upper limit
southern: Kvinnherad
effect on body mass
intercept	4.005	3.995	4.014
NAOw	0.004681	−0.00388	0.01324
NDVIm	0.01193	0.004433	0.01944
age (linear effect)	0.01223	0.009796	0.01467
age (cubic term, for age≤3)	0.03052	0.02969	0.03135
density index	−0.01938	−0.02781	−0.0109
date of harvesting	0.008463	0.002031	0.01491
snow—low altitude	0.004305	−0.00618	0.0148
indirect effects—operating on other environmental variables
snow (high altitude)→NDVIm	−0.1779	−0.6962	0.3414
tmp (Apr)→NDVIm	0.5701	0.05162	1.084
NAOw→snow (high altitude)	0.8988	0.6355	1.161
NAOw→snow (low altitude)	−0.6591	−1.11	−0.2066
NAO (Apr)→tmp (Apr)	0.2338	−0.3459	0.8177
northern: Snillfjord and Orkdal
effect on body mass
intercept	4.092	4.081	4.103
NAOw	−0.00385	−0.01238	0.004664
NDVIm	0.00220	−0.00569	0.01008
age (linear effect)	0.01667	0.01409	0.01926
age (cubic term, for age≤3)	0.02801	0.02722	0.02880
density index	−0.02792	−0.03623	−0.01956
date of harvesting	0.01769	0.01045	0.02493
municipality	−0.00838	−0.02452	0.00770
snow (low altitude)	−0.00644	−0.01353	0.00067
indirect effects—operating on other environmental variables
snow (high altitude)→NDVIm	0.02327	−0.3855	0.4303
tmp (Apr)→NDVIm	0.6056	0.1973	1.015
NAOw→snow (high altitude)	0.4126	−0.0238	0.8495
NAOw→snow (low altitude)	−0.2863	−0.7458	0.1745
NAO (Apr)→tmp (Apr)	0.3916	−0.0498	0.8324